Scenario-Based Forecasting in an Era of Strategic Uncertainty

Navigating Complexity

In an era defined by great-power competition, emerging technology disruptions, and non-state actor threats, traditional linear forecasting models are no longer sufficient.

The Scenario-Based Approach

Scenario-based forecasting moves beyond single-point predictions to explore a range of plausible outcomes. This methodology is particularly valuable when high uncertainty exists about key drivers of change and multiple actors with competing interests are involved.

Building Effective Scenarios

The first step is identifying the two or three variables that will most significantly shape the future environment. Using these critical uncertainties as axes, construct 3-4 distinct scenarios that represent fundamentally different future states.